Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 82549.568275 87148.639759 91747.247583 96687.138245 101840.164470 107053.683188 112723.777614
2025-02-16 74269.194846 81259.931788 88447.989641 96381.127013 104880.674394 113703.500593 123543.853949
2025-02-23 68862.694472 77498.660225 86574.970880 96804.219499 107990.575907 119830.457314 133287.846001
2025-03-02 64485.746292 74321.192123 84850.089476 96925.310832 110355.413960 124798.116034 141467.720173
2025-03-09 61690.625447 72578.220303 84419.503298 98203.779374 113755.928220 130706.182792 150522.585359
2025-03-16 58339.339831 69961.296406 82787.999809 97925.479853 115229.412449 134319.668376 156897.904421
2025-03-23 56471.660975 68884.453196 82763.282042 99341.502849 118510.935654 139884.494815 165418.230738
2025-03-30 54522.227434 67584.222059 82368.744004 100229.588073 121103.724011 144607.443816 172946.975117
2025-04-06 52352.476523 65908.067277 81432.767099 100391.568501 122774.945318 148213.151919 179153.850115
2025-04-13 50258.947865 64220.940400 80392.100381 100344.667791 124129.054332 151397.374381 184837.028114
2025-04-20 49156.241023 63663.662275 80638.173449 101776.516367 127192.182823 156559.063863 192835.156540
2025-04-27 48111.791362 63121.401311 80855.101529 103134.277120 130141.234039 161577.874119 200677.709343
2025-05-04 46724.871573 62123.927658 80500.566653 103796.651188 132272.394628 165668.093135 207493.745966
2025-05-11 45087.417363 60756.644525 79644.442154 103805.497873 133584.452187 168769.249282 213139.080212
2025-05-18 43806.566326 59787.655668 79235.484441 104325.470458 135491.168967 172571.683935 219632.479864
2025-05-25 42425.117343 58638.934122 78556.591983 104469.077081 136903.560146 175757.408037 225377.799189
2025-06-01 41697.854340 58299.365704 78867.972362 105830.606312 139812.474567 180769.273517 233368.197048
2025-06-08 40255.921059 56982.733824 77897.092652 105535.604065 140625.393690 183192.553458 238183.674543
2025-06-15 39695.995709 56798.715451 78354.055844 107040.088874 143691.051196 188401.026142 246454.455571
2025-06-22 38922.888715 56303.780589 78386.802102 107983.470705 146039.081577 192722.946855 253647.728558
2025-06-29 37859.733403 55387.010749 77841.615563 108155.527458 147387.927370 195791.016694 259286.774870
2025-07-06 36755.081385 54380.059154 77147.351337 108105.712757 148431.131592 198463.923548 264432.326777
2025-07-13 36344.033118 54300.065947 77661.705139 109626.446625 151494.201258 203692.461303 272816.507506